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Behavioral economics is the study of the psychological, cognitive, emotional, cultural and social factors involved in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by classical economic theory. [1] [2] Behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic agents.
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa).
An early use of the concept was in 1868. The term "wage-price spiral" appeared in a 1937 New York Times article about a steel-workers' strike. In the 1970s, US President Richard Nixon attempted to break what he saw as a "spiral" of prices and costs, by imposing a price freeze, with little effect.
Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics, judgment and decision making that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. [1] The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics .
Loss aversion is part of prospect theory, a cornerstone in behavioral economics. The theory explored numerous behavioral biases leading to sub-optimal decisions making. [ 5 ] Kahneman and Tversky found that people are biased in their real estimation of probability of events happening.
One solution to the problem observed by Rabin is that proposed by prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory, where outcomes are considered relative to a reference point (usually the status quo), rather than considering only the final wealth. Another limitation is the reflection effect, which demonstrates the reversing of risk aversion.
Gigerenzer & Gaissmaier (2011) state that sub-sets of strategy include heuristics, regression analysis, and Bayesian inference. [14]A heuristic is a strategy that ignores part of the information, with the goal of making decisions more quickly, frugally, and/or accurately than more complex methods (Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier [2011], p. 454; see also Todd et al. [2012], p. 7).
Rational choice theory has become increasingly employed in social sciences other than economics, such as sociology, evolutionary theory and political science in recent decades. [ 13 ] [ 14 ] It has had far-reaching impacts on the study of political science , especially in fields like the study of interest groups, elections , behaviour in ...