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This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the logarithm of the accuracy ratio (the ratio of the predicted to actual value), given by (). This approach leads to superior statistical properties and also leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.
A forecast bias occurs when there are consistent differences between actual outcomes and previously generated forecasts of those quantities; that is: forecasts may have a general tendency to be too high or too low. A normal property of a good forecast is that it is not biased. [1]
Tracking signal. In statistics and management science, a tracking signal monitors any forecasts that have been made in comparison with actuals, and warns when there are unexpected departures of the outcomes from the forecasts. Forecasts can relate to sales, inventory, or anything pertaining to an organization's future demand.
An ERP module such as this can help a company develop highly accurate and dynamic sales forecasts and sales and operations plans. By creating more accurate and dynamic forecasts, a company reduces its chance of producing insufficient inventory for a given period, thus should be able to reduce the amount of safety stock required. [1]
The Supply Chain Operations Reference ( SCOR) model is a process reference model originally developed and endorsed by the Supply Chain Council, now a part of ASCM, as the cross-industry, standard diagnostic tool for supply chain management. [1] The SCOR model describes the business activities associated with satisfying a customer's demand ...
The Association for Supply Chain Management ( ASCM) is a not-for-profit international educational organization offering certification programs, training tools, and networking opportunities to increase workplace performance. Formed in 1957, it was originally known as the "American Production and Inventory Control Society" or APICS.
If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.
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