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This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the logarithm of the accuracy ratio (the ratio of the predicted to actual value), given by (). This approach leads to superior statistical properties and also leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.
For example, a median-unbiased forecast would be one where half of the forecasts are too low and half too high: see Bias of an estimator. In contexts where forecasts are being produced on a repetitive basis, the performance of the forecasting system may be monitored using a tracking signal , which provides an automatically maintained summary of ...
Tracking signal. In statistics and management science, a tracking signal monitors any forecasts that have been made in comparison with actuals, and warns when there are unexpected departures of the outcomes from the forecasts. Forecasts can relate to sales, inventory, or anything pertaining to an organization's future demand.
Safety stock is held when uncertainty exists in demand, supply, or manufacturing yield, and serves as an insurance against stockouts. Safety stock is an additional quantity of an item held in the inventory to reduce the risk that the item will be out of stock. It acts as a buffer stock in case sales are greater than planned and/or the supplier ...
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One supposed problem with SMAPE is that it is not symmetric since over- and under-forecasts are not treated equally. This is illustrated by the following example by applying the second SMAPE formula: Over-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 110 give SMAPE = 4.76%; Under-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 90 give SMAPE = 5.26%.
where is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, is the forecast, and is the number of different times for which the variable is forecast. Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a ...
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