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On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year. [538 69] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high ...
Nate Silver. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [ 2]
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race. Source of poll aggregation.
To win a U.S. presidential election, you don’t necessarily need to win the popular vote (i.e., the combined tally across all 50 states). You need to stockpile electoral votes by finishing first ...
Several sites have created election forecast models to gauge how likely it is for either candidate to reach the 270 electoral college votes to win. Forecasts by 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
The 2024 United States Senate elections are scheduled to be held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested in regular elections. [3] Senators are divided into three classes whose six-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. [4]
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s Democratic opponent in the November election trails by 3 percentage points, according to a new poll. ... according to 538. ... with 50.9% of votes to O’Rourke’s 48.3%.