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This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the logarithm of the accuracy ratio (the ratio of the predicted to actual value), given by (). This approach leads to superior statistical properties and also leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term.
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The forecasting of the weather for the following six hours is often referred to as nowcasting. [70] In this time range it is possible to forecast smaller features such as individual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy, as well as other features too small to be resolved by a computer model.
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit —or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find ...
Forecast bias. A forecast bias occurs when there are consistent differences between actual outcomes and previously generated forecasts of those quantities; that is: forecasts may have a general tendency to be too high or too low. A normal property of a good forecast is that it is not biased. [1]
Demand forecastingis the prediction of the quantity of goods and services that will be demanded by consumers at a future point in time.[1] More specifically, the methods of demand forecasting entail using predictive analyticsto estimate customer demand in consideration of key economic conditions. This is an important tool in optimizing business ...
If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.