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NFL predictions are naturally subject to a lot of variance compared to the other sports the predict. Due to the incredibly small sample size, one regular season game going wrong can have massive playoff implications, and one playoff game wrong and it’s over as there is no best of X like baseball/basketball. Maybe.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Members Online G Elliott Morris on Twitter: " The difference between Biden’s margin in the Electoral College tipping point state (likely PA, others possible) and the national popular vote is closer to 1.5 points in our forecast ...
FiveThirtyEight 2017 NFL Predictions. Prediction is the wrong word to use for their football work. I mean using last year's Elo isn't smart. The Jets aren't going to win 6-7 games and the Raiders aren't going 8-8. Their philosophy is that on average it is the smartest way to do it.
2022 NFL Predictions | FiveThirtyEight. A few weeks ago it was 6% chance of making the playoffs...42% now and rising!!! I think you're right. Seattle above the Lions due to the head to head loss but schedule has them at 31% chance. Washington favored over the Giants 74% to 46% (just above us) so Commanders can sure help us out tonight.
DARKO has daily box predictions for the NBA, nothing seasonal though. It’s the best all-in-one metric for the NBA and is built off Bayesian box score estimates and RAPM – really nice methodology section. Basketball Index has imo the 2nd best all-in-one metric and use it to make daily, seasonal, and post-season projections. 3.
A home-field adjustment of roughly 48 points, depending on who was at home, plus 4 points of Elo for every 1,000 miles traveled. The exact amount is based on a rolling 10-year average of home-field advantage, and changes during the season. So yeah, Home Field advantage is more than enough to overcome the 13 point ELO difference.
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I liked FiveThirtyEight because it felt like there was a lot that went into it, and a lot that they told you. Like how they factored in starting pitcher and rest etc. I also just liked how the page was set up. I used that website to follow MLB, NHL, NBA, and NFL. Sad to see it looks like it's not coming back. 5 comments.
MOD. NFL Week 10 Predictions Thread (2023 Season) We're on the backend of the season, r/NFL! We have another game in Germany this week and it looks like it'll be a bargain bin game compared to last week's. The byes are fours teams this week, meaning two less games to watch. I had a great Week 9, going 12-2 and bringing me to 91-45 on the season.
Posted by u/pawsii - 14 votes and 25 comments