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They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.) We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.8 million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.0 percent chance of becoming president. Frequency of electoral.
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Clinton, but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
The Keys to the White House. The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction ...
The 2016 election was the fifth and most recent presidential election in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote. [ 2 ] [ 4 ] Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and ...
As Election Day draws near, Clinton and Trump are increasingly focused on several battleground states which will determine who becomes the next president. Presidential polls 2016: Here's who's ...
Leading presidential 2016 candidate by electoral vote count. States in gray have no polling data. Polls from lightly shaded states are older than September 1, 2016. This map only represents the most recent statewide polling data; it is not a prediction for the 2016 election.
The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election, [69] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.
Throughout the presidential primary season, and well into the general campaign between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, 2016 was a year filled with twists, turns, 3 a.m. tweets and incorrect ...