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Confusingly, sometimes when people refer to wMAPE they are talking about a different model in which the numerator and denominator of the wMAPE formula above are weighted again by another set of custom weights . Perhaps it would be more accurate to call this the double weighted MAPE (wwMAPE). Its formula is:
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(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.
where is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, is the forecast, and is the number of different times for which the variable is forecast. Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a ...
If the forecast is 100% (= 1) and it rains, then the Brier Score is 0, the best score achievable. If the forecast is 100% and it does not rain, then the Brier Score is 1, the worst score achievable. If the forecast is 70% (= 0.70) and it rains, then the Brier Score is (0.70−1) 2 = 0.09.
Demand forecasting is the prediction of the quantity of goods and services that will be demanded by consumers at a future point in time. [1] More specifically, the methods of demand forecasting entail using predictive analytics to estimate customer demand in consideration of key economic conditions. This is an important tool in optimizing ...
Mean directional accuracy. Mean directional accuracy ( MDA ), also known as mean direction accuracy, is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics. It compares the forecast direction (upward or downward) to the actual realized direction. It is defined by the following formula:
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