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Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatilitylooks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Volatility terminology. [edit] Volatility as described here refers to the actual volatility, more specifically:
Average true range ( ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator originally developed by J. Welles Wilder, Jr. for commodities. [ 1][ 2] The indicator does not provide an indication of price trend, simply the degree of price volatility. [ 3] The average true range is an N-period smoothed moving average (SMMA) of the true range values.
The volatilities in the market for 90 days are 18% and for 180 days 16.6%. In our notation we have , = 18% and , = 16.6% (treating a year as 360 days). We want to find the forward volatility for the period starting with day 91 and ending with day 180.
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